Something, left, moves. European commissioner for economic affairs, Olli Rehn, he felt indebted to reiterate that "among the countries of the euro there will be no event of default on payments. The potential costs, both economically and politically in an event of this kind would be so devastating for the euro area and the European Union that we will do whatever is necessary to prevent it. And I'm sure we will avoid it. There will be no restructuring of the debt in Greece, nor in any country in the euro area, "he said.
A procedure for debt restructuring in fact requires the declaration of insolvency or default: alert yields were talking about in yesterday's ringing the bells are doing well in Brussels. Yesterday, however, some tensions have resurfaced on government bonds of Ireland and Portugal, two countries considered peripheral on the creditworthiness of currency in, tensions triggered by disappointing data on the activities of euro area firms that September fell to its lowest for seven months. It remains a question: where will the EU money to avoid debt restructuring, in other words not to send anyone in default?
few months and Olli Rehn will give us an answer. Late. The reason is obvious: the Gross Domestic Product Ireland in the second quarter of 2010 has declined by 1, 2% over the previous period, with an aggregate figure that shows the decline in 1, 8% on an annual basis. The data confirmed yesterday the Central Statistics Office in Dublin, Bloomberg agency reported: The decline of GDP in Ireland has surprised experts, who expected a repeat of the positive performance of the first quarter of the year in which Ireland had grown again. Instead, downside spiral.
By aggravating the news that the Irish government would aim to consider a different option for Anglo Irish Bank to avoid the spin-off, and then the creation of the bad bank, in fact much it would cost to taxpayers: in short, Dublin would be to give the green light to a bank to buy back the debt subject to an acquisition price of shares in "punitive" to scrape together the capital.
Simply put, it's ugly to say, a sort of default in another form: the bank currently has 2.45 billion of subordinated debt and last year had already given birth to a buy back at the level of 32 cents per euro . In this way the state would save about EUR 2 billion but the final word goes to the EU: Brussels gives the go ahead or not in this last-ditch? Do not get hopes up, unfortunately, is only an exaggerated treatment: one between Ireland and Portugal will be forced to restructure its debt, saving armored Greece by Germany and France demands a sacrificial lamb. Bad news indeed, in line with the rest of the day yesterday.
A procedure for debt restructuring in fact requires the declaration of insolvency or default: alert yields were talking about in yesterday's ringing the bells are doing well in Brussels. Yesterday, however, some tensions have resurfaced on government bonds of Ireland and Portugal, two countries considered peripheral on the creditworthiness of currency in, tensions triggered by disappointing data on the activities of euro area firms that September fell to its lowest for seven months. It remains a question: where will the EU money to avoid debt restructuring, in other words not to send anyone in default?
few months and Olli Rehn will give us an answer. Late. The reason is obvious: the Gross Domestic Product Ireland in the second quarter of 2010 has declined by 1, 2% over the previous period, with an aggregate figure that shows the decline in 1, 8% on an annual basis. The data confirmed yesterday the Central Statistics Office in Dublin, Bloomberg agency reported: The decline of GDP in Ireland has surprised experts, who expected a repeat of the positive performance of the first quarter of the year in which Ireland had grown again. Instead, downside spiral.
By aggravating the news that the Irish government would aim to consider a different option for Anglo Irish Bank to avoid the spin-off, and then the creation of the bad bank, in fact much it would cost to taxpayers: in short, Dublin would be to give the green light to a bank to buy back the debt subject to an acquisition price of shares in "punitive" to scrape together the capital.
Simply put, it's ugly to say, a sort of default in another form: the bank currently has 2.45 billion of subordinated debt and last year had already given birth to a buy back at the level of 32 cents per euro . In this way the state would save about EUR 2 billion but the final word goes to the EU: Brussels gives the go ahead or not in this last-ditch? Do not get hopes up, unfortunately, is only an exaggerated treatment: one between Ireland and Portugal will be forced to restructure its debt, saving armored Greece by Germany and France demands a sacrificial lamb. Bad news indeed, in line with the rest of the day yesterday.
"Have you read the report of Uralsib?. Within an hour, yesterday morning, I had addressed this question at least ten times by ten different people: fund managers, traders, professionals, colleagues in the financial press. Yes, I had read. And I liked it at all. In fact, I had just ruined breakfast.
The Bank of Moscow, in fact, warned in no uncertain terms that half of the potato crop was lost and the whole of Russia was that the grain crisis that hit the Black Sea area - barn that supplies one quarter of exports overall - because of the devastating fires this summer will continue for a second year. In short, a disaster. The price of wheat has already risen by 70% from June to today, reaching $ 7.30 per bushel, "I hope that the situation was normalized in September but was not the case: and, indeed, many other commodities are joining the group of bulls, "said Abdolreza Abbassanian responsible for the grain sector to FAO.
For now, the levels of the 2008 crisis are still a long way - at the time it reached the $ 13 a bushel - and global stocks are still subject to 22%, but the situation is getting worse: "We are not yet in a real crisis proper, but balance is precarious. If Russia and Ukraine should get to know another bad year, then you should seriously put his hand to the stocks', Case Abbassanian.
still darker the picture suggested by Chris Weafer, chief economist of Uralsib, that the Russian grain harvest this year is expected to be around 60 million tonnes, against a consumption of 75 million, and stocks of emergency 9.5 million: "We think that Russia will need 17 million tons and will have to import them." And that's the downside: if the markets have digested the Russian export ban imposed by the Kremlin until 2011 (through higher prices), no had taken account of the risk caused by the fact that Russia is about to turn into a major importer. Luke Chandler
Rabobank confirms the expected negative: "At this point we can not speak of sustained recovery of the crops in Russia, because the fires have damaged the soil so as to make possible the planting of the winter." But the corn sends signals little comforting: the global stocks are at the lowest level for 37 years now, with a ratio-to-use 13%: a very low level, almost no limit, especially since the United States could use 36% of the corn crop for ethanol fuel purposes. Driving is but half-empty stomach.
Price Corn was up 40% from June, reaching $ 5 per bushel, someone threw the cross on the bad weather that damaged crops in the U.S., but it turned out, China has imported a record 432mila tons only in August . The problem, in this case, is structural: China is indeed becoming an importer of corn because of a structural change of eating habits of the masses. We eat more meat and therefore need more grain to raise and feed the animals: 70% of Chinese corn is used for this purpose and it takes about seven pounds of corn to "produce" a pound of beef. It's called
agflazione, inflation and agricultural prices combined with record gold us about inflation globally, the daughter of the monetary policies of U.S., EU and Japan that are flooding the world with liquidity. The problem is that the lack of food can be a detector that inflation is deflationary, just think of the misunderstanding made in 2008 when it was decided at the beginning of an inflationary spiral style 1970 and instead it was related to expansion of demand and speculation.
The Fed this week said it loud and clear: there is a downside risk to inflation. The world is changing and the transformation of two giants like Russia and China could create a structural importance of large shocks, especially in this context of persistent global weakness. We are at a key junction the balance of geopolitical and economic and Beijing knows it, as Premier Wen Jiabao, visiting New York, responded this way to U.S. pressure for an appreciation of the yuan, "An increase of 20% of our currency could cause severe losses employment and social instability, throwing the nation facing the prospect of legal battle with the U.S. on monetary claims. In fact, we can not even imagine how many Chinese companies should be bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their place and how many migrant workers leave the city to return to the countryside: if we accept the U.S. claim of appreciation between 20% and 40% of the social scene would be devastating. " And
Beijing knows that the civil wars rather than nerves. To date, the yuan has appreciated by about 2% against the dollar since June 19, the day the Central Bank of China has given the green light to a more flexible exchange rate peg to semifixed compared to 6.83 against the greenback last for two years . "Ask an appreciation of that level is a symptom of a total lack of fundamentals in the foreign exchange market, and can not be managed like a shock in such a short time," said Glenn Maguire, an economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.
Responding to accusations the U.S., Wen made it clear that "the main cause of U.S. trade deficit is not the exchange rate with the Chinese currency, but the structure investment and savings. China does not promote a trade surplus intentionally. " True or not, China boasted a trade surplus with the United States of 119 billion dollars in the middle of this year, seeing as it could close 2010 with an even higher figure of 227 billion in 2009: a problem for Obama, forced to face an unemployment rate of 9% and mid-term elections in November.
To understand the level of debate, know that Wen spoke at a conference organized by Goldman Sachs which was attended by the CEO of Pepsi Inc. Indra Nooyi, former Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin and saw as a moderator none other than Henry Kissinger, the man who pick up the threads dialogue with Beijing during the Nixon administration.
"The differences between us and the U.S. is much easier to solve when compared with the challenges faced in those days, Dr. Kissinger," he slyly annotated Wen. As if to say, come and meet, or will war monetary, but also in terms of managing your debt. In short, war games. Global.
The Bank of Moscow, in fact, warned in no uncertain terms that half of the potato crop was lost and the whole of Russia was that the grain crisis that hit the Black Sea area - barn that supplies one quarter of exports overall - because of the devastating fires this summer will continue for a second year. In short, a disaster. The price of wheat has already risen by 70% from June to today, reaching $ 7.30 per bushel, "I hope that the situation was normalized in September but was not the case: and, indeed, many other commodities are joining the group of bulls, "said Abdolreza Abbassanian responsible for the grain sector to FAO.
For now, the levels of the 2008 crisis are still a long way - at the time it reached the $ 13 a bushel - and global stocks are still subject to 22%, but the situation is getting worse: "We are not yet in a real crisis proper, but balance is precarious. If Russia and Ukraine should get to know another bad year, then you should seriously put his hand to the stocks', Case Abbassanian.
still darker the picture suggested by Chris Weafer, chief economist of Uralsib, that the Russian grain harvest this year is expected to be around 60 million tonnes, against a consumption of 75 million, and stocks of emergency 9.5 million: "We think that Russia will need 17 million tons and will have to import them." And that's the downside: if the markets have digested the Russian export ban imposed by the Kremlin until 2011 (through higher prices), no had taken account of the risk caused by the fact that Russia is about to turn into a major importer. Luke Chandler
Rabobank confirms the expected negative: "At this point we can not speak of sustained recovery of the crops in Russia, because the fires have damaged the soil so as to make possible the planting of the winter." But the corn sends signals little comforting: the global stocks are at the lowest level for 37 years now, with a ratio-to-use 13%: a very low level, almost no limit, especially since the United States could use 36% of the corn crop for ethanol fuel purposes. Driving is but half-empty stomach.
Price Corn was up 40% from June, reaching $ 5 per bushel, someone threw the cross on the bad weather that damaged crops in the U.S., but it turned out, China has imported a record 432mila tons only in August . The problem, in this case, is structural: China is indeed becoming an importer of corn because of a structural change of eating habits of the masses. We eat more meat and therefore need more grain to raise and feed the animals: 70% of Chinese corn is used for this purpose and it takes about seven pounds of corn to "produce" a pound of beef. It's called
agflazione, inflation and agricultural prices combined with record gold us about inflation globally, the daughter of the monetary policies of U.S., EU and Japan that are flooding the world with liquidity. The problem is that the lack of food can be a detector that inflation is deflationary, just think of the misunderstanding made in 2008 when it was decided at the beginning of an inflationary spiral style 1970 and instead it was related to expansion of demand and speculation.
The Fed this week said it loud and clear: there is a downside risk to inflation. The world is changing and the transformation of two giants like Russia and China could create a structural importance of large shocks, especially in this context of persistent global weakness. We are at a key junction the balance of geopolitical and economic and Beijing knows it, as Premier Wen Jiabao, visiting New York, responded this way to U.S. pressure for an appreciation of the yuan, "An increase of 20% of our currency could cause severe losses employment and social instability, throwing the nation facing the prospect of legal battle with the U.S. on monetary claims. In fact, we can not even imagine how many Chinese companies should be bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their place and how many migrant workers leave the city to return to the countryside: if we accept the U.S. claim of appreciation between 20% and 40% of the social scene would be devastating. " And
Beijing knows that the civil wars rather than nerves. To date, the yuan has appreciated by about 2% against the dollar since June 19, the day the Central Bank of China has given the green light to a more flexible exchange rate peg to semifixed compared to 6.83 against the greenback last for two years . "Ask an appreciation of that level is a symptom of a total lack of fundamentals in the foreign exchange market, and can not be managed like a shock in such a short time," said Glenn Maguire, an economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.
Responding to accusations the U.S., Wen made it clear that "the main cause of U.S. trade deficit is not the exchange rate with the Chinese currency, but the structure investment and savings. China does not promote a trade surplus intentionally. " True or not, China boasted a trade surplus with the United States of 119 billion dollars in the middle of this year, seeing as it could close 2010 with an even higher figure of 227 billion in 2009: a problem for Obama, forced to face an unemployment rate of 9% and mid-term elections in November.
To understand the level of debate, know that Wen spoke at a conference organized by Goldman Sachs which was attended by the CEO of Pepsi Inc. Indra Nooyi, former Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin and saw as a moderator none other than Henry Kissinger, the man who pick up the threads dialogue with Beijing during the Nixon administration.
"The differences between us and the U.S. is much easier to solve when compared with the challenges faced in those days, Dr. Kissinger," he slyly annotated Wen. As if to say, come and meet, or will war monetary, but also in terms of managing your debt. In short, war games. Global.
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