| Something, left, moves. European commissioner for economic affairs, Olli Rehn, he felt indebted to reiterate that "among the countries of the euro there will be no event of default on payments. The potential costs, both economically and politically in an event of this kind would be so devastating for the euro area and the European Union that we will do whatever is necessary to prevent it. And I'm sure we will avoid it. There will be no restructuring of the debt in Greece, nor in any country in the euro area, "he said. A procedure for debt restructuring in fact requires the declaration of insolvency or default: alert yields were talking about in yesterday's ringing the bells are doing well in Brussels. Yesterday, however, some tensions have resurfaced on government bonds of Ireland and Portugal, two countries considered peripheral on the creditworthiness of currency in, tensions triggered by disappointing data on the activities of euro area firms that September fell to its lowest for seven months. It remains a question: where will the EU money to avoid debt restructuring, in other words not to send anyone in default? few months and Olli Rehn will give us an answer. Late. The reason is obvious: the Gross Domestic Product Ireland in the second quarter of 2010 has declined by 1, 2% over the previous period, with an aggregate figure that shows the decline in 1, 8% on an annual basis. The data confirmed yesterday the Central Statistics Office in Dublin, Bloomberg agency reported: The decline of GDP in Ireland has surprised experts, who expected a repeat of the positive performance of the first quarter of the year in which Ireland had grown again. Instead, downside spiral. By aggravating the news that the Irish government would aim to consider a different option for Anglo Irish Bank to avoid the spin-off, and then the creation of the bad bank, in fact much it would cost to taxpayers: in short, Dublin would be to give the green light to a bank to buy back the debt subject to an acquisition price of shares in "punitive" to scrape together the capital. Simply put, it's ugly to say, a sort of default in another form: the bank currently has 2.45 billion of subordinated debt and last year had already given birth to a buy back at the level of 32 cents per euro . In this way the state would save about EUR 2 billion but the final word goes to the EU: Brussels gives the go ahead or not in this last-ditch? Do not get hopes up, unfortunately, is only an exaggerated treatment: one between Ireland and Portugal will be forced to restructure its debt, saving armored Greece by Germany and France demands a sacrificial lamb. Bad news indeed, in line with the rest of the day yesterday. "Have you read the report of Uralsib?. Within an hour, yesterday morning, I had addressed this question at least ten times by ten different people: fund managers, traders, professionals, colleagues in the financial press. Yes, I had read. And I liked it at all. In fact, I had just ruined breakfast. The Bank of Moscow, in fact, warned in no uncertain terms that half of the potato crop was lost and the whole of Russia was that the grain crisis that hit the Black Sea area - barn that supplies one quarter of exports overall - because of the devastating fires this summer will continue for a second year. In short, a disaster. The price of wheat has already risen by 70% from June to today, reaching $ 7.30 per bushel, "I hope that the situation was normalized in September but was not the case: and, indeed, many other commodities are joining the group of bulls, "said Abdolreza Abbassanian responsible for the grain sector to FAO. For now, the levels of the 2008 crisis are still a long way - at the time it reached the $ 13 a bushel - and global stocks are still subject to 22%, but the situation is getting worse: "We are not yet in a real crisis proper, but balance is precarious. If Russia and Ukraine should get to know another bad year, then you should seriously put his hand to the stocks', Case Abbassanian. still darker the picture suggested by Chris Weafer, chief economist of Uralsib, that the Russian grain harvest this year is expected to be around 60 million tonnes, against a consumption of 75 million, and stocks of emergency 9.5 million: "We think that Russia will need 17 million tons and will have to import them." And that's the downside: if the markets have digested the Russian export ban imposed by the Kremlin until 2011 (through higher prices), no had taken account of the risk caused by the fact that Russia is about to turn into a major importer. Luke Chandler Rabobank confirms the expected negative: "At this point we can not speak of sustained recovery of the crops in Russia, because the fires have damaged the soil so as to make possible the planting of the winter." But the corn sends signals little comforting: the global stocks are at the lowest level for 37 years now, with a ratio-to-use 13%: a very low level, almost no limit, especially since the United States could use 36% of the corn crop for ethanol fuel purposes. Driving is but half-empty stomach. Price Corn was up 40% from June, reaching $ 5 per bushel, someone threw the cross on the bad weather that damaged crops in the U.S., but it turned out, China has imported a record 432mila tons only in August . The problem, in this case, is structural: China is indeed becoming an importer of corn because of a structural change of eating habits of the masses. We eat more meat and therefore need more grain to raise and feed the animals: 70% of Chinese corn is used for this purpose and it takes about seven pounds of corn to "produce" a pound of beef. It's called agflazione, inflation and agricultural prices combined with record gold us about inflation globally, the daughter of the monetary policies of U.S., EU and Japan that are flooding the world with liquidity. The problem is that the lack of food can be a detector that inflation is deflationary, just think of the misunderstanding made in 2008 when it was decided at the beginning of an inflationary spiral style 1970 and instead it was related to expansion of demand and speculation. The Fed this week said it loud and clear: there is a downside risk to inflation. The world is changing and the transformation of two giants like Russia and China could create a structural importance of large shocks, especially in this context of persistent global weakness. We are at a key junction the balance of geopolitical and economic and Beijing knows it, as Premier Wen Jiabao, visiting New York, responded this way to U.S. pressure for an appreciation of the yuan, "An increase of 20% of our currency could cause severe losses employment and social instability, throwing the nation facing the prospect of legal battle with the U.S. on monetary claims. In fact, we can not even imagine how many Chinese companies should be bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their place and how many migrant workers leave the city to return to the countryside: if we accept the U.S. claim of appreciation between 20% and 40% of the social scene would be devastating. " And Beijing knows that the civil wars rather than nerves. To date, the yuan has appreciated by about 2% against the dollar since June 19, the day the Central Bank of China has given the green light to a more flexible exchange rate peg to semifixed compared to 6.83 against the greenback last for two years . "Ask an appreciation of that level is a symptom of a total lack of fundamentals in the foreign exchange market, and can not be managed like a shock in such a short time," said Glenn Maguire, an economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. Responding to accusations the U.S., Wen made it clear that "the main cause of U.S. trade deficit is not the exchange rate with the Chinese currency, but the structure investment and savings. China does not promote a trade surplus intentionally. " True or not, China boasted a trade surplus with the United States of 119 billion dollars in the middle of this year, seeing as it could close 2010 with an even higher figure of 227 billion in 2009: a problem for Obama, forced to face an unemployment rate of 9% and mid-term elections in November. To understand the level of debate, know that Wen spoke at a conference organized by Goldman Sachs which was attended by the CEO of Pepsi Inc. Indra Nooyi, former Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin and saw as a moderator none other than Henry Kissinger, the man who pick up the threads dialogue with Beijing during the Nixon administration. "The differences between us and the U.S. is much easier to solve when compared with the challenges faced in those days, Dr. Kissinger," he slyly annotated Wen. As if to say, come and meet, or will war monetary, but also in terms of managing your debt. In short, war games. Global.
There's a new warning debt that has shaken Europe And three! After Peter Orszag and Christina Romer, now Larry Summers, chief economic advisor to Barack Obama, thanks and salutes: a return in November to teach at Harvard. Hard to blame them: on the one hand, the situation looks less and less manageable, the other the choice of the Fed create a new wave of stimulus is likely to create the conditions for "perfect bubble" of public debt. Also because of Washington's policy in the rooms begin to circulate rumors of concern, obviously filtered from New York, the Chinese yuan, in fact, could depreciate further appreciate that more because of the real estate bubble of the Chinese would explode. Thinks so, at least, Jim Chanos, founder of hedge fund Kynikos Associates, known protagonist of policy "to bear" to China. A good bet, given that for nine days in this part of the yuan is appreciating against the dollar after the joint shoot Barack Obama and Tim Geithner against non-compliance monetary agreements by Beijing. "We think - said to ilsussidiario.net Chanos - that there is a huge bubble in China and this could have a shock effect against certain commodities and materials. I make no secret of the fact that we are short on how to fund construction, real estate companies and also companies that deal with basic materials for construction. " The problem today is that net exports does not contribute as it was before the country's economic growth and the Chinese authorities are seriously considering a new policy of strict respect for the real estate market. In this context, therefore, the risk is a depreciation of the yuan, a situation that would call the turbo to exports, but that would create intolerable problems for the United States. "We need to get good lenses when you look at the macro data offered by the Chinese authorities, because what we see is almost always what they want us to see. Their only concern now is to run more and more to keep those numbers tied to the GDP, that is the problem. In China, everything is tied to numbers, the politics of saving face than in the West and especially since there is no free market in China, most economic activities are done through state controlled enterprises and state banks or semi-state " , says Chanos. Through the temptation of a policy of strict, China would then prepare the ground for a soft landing by the explosion of the bubble, "the problem is that history teaches us that normally the events are revealed in a more uncontrollable when you go down, rather than when it grows" concludes Chanos. If we combine this with the fact that demand for new mortgages fell for the fourth week in a row in the U.S., -0.03 to 4.44% share, despite the fixed exchange rates to levels not seen so low, then you understand that is the macro to send signals daunting situation: still a 0.1% decline is to reach the record low of 1990. Moreover, the problem is represented by the fact that in view of the new policy stimulus of the Fed, the gold is pointing directly toward the $ 1,300 an ounce: Yesterday morning the stock was 1293.5, +1.51% in one day. But there is no appetite in the markets just for the safe haven par excellence, even the bond of the peripheral countries of Europe are selling (the rods of recent days confirm this) but the returns that countries are forced to pay for funding are unsustainably high and then we will see the countries that emit forced to restructure their debt. In short, there is growing fear about the ability of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to repay their debt, "When you pay nearly four points more than the bund, both you and I might borrow the money", Case Irwin Stelzer, director of the Hudson Institute and eminence grise in the U.S. by Rupert Murdoch. "The problem is that market investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the ability of these countries to cope with their debt, I do not see the opportunity to continue on this path, with these interest rates, without some sort of restructuring. The math, however, is very simple: you can not go on like this, "continues Stelzer. very concerned about this also Par Magnusson, chief analyst for the Nordic market to RBS, that 'of course is quite easy to sell bonds with returns like that, the problem is that sooner or then you have to repay that money. For example, how the hell can Greece repay an interest rate of 11% with the debt ratio to 100%? We share only 12.5% \u200b\u200bof GDP in interest payments. " How, then, as for example Greece has already benefited and are benefiting from the assistance of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a fund recently rated AAA by major rating agencies? For Stelzer, however, "the EFSF not as great as was thought at the beginning and then it would not be able to help nations in crisis for a long period of time. Also, anyone who still look to credit rating agencies as a guide or assessors tools and means, you do not read the newspapers over the past ten years. " The trouble, from a certain point of view, is that the issue of debt restructuring by some countries has been put into oblivion the moment in which the ECB has decided to enter the market to buy bonds and sovereign bonds, politics sufficient to calm the markets and not artificially put under scrutiny the issue of restructuring. Magnusson does not think so, that 'the ECB does what it can. The problem is the governments of those countries that are just by rolling forward the snowball, the problem is that doing so sooner or later there will be an avalanche. " Yeah, sooner or later will the avalanche. Or the supreme revenge against excessive speculation crafted by rating agencies and investment banks: a haircut dry yields of 30-40% in accordance with the emergency or the coating on them or even longer time spans punitive laws at the level of taxation obligations. Of course the ECB will not be happy, since it is mainly the banks - German head - to stock up on sovereign bonds in search of yields that are enticed but there you: if there is to choose between a default and the chain of scornatura some institutional speculator, I think is biased to the latter. Because if it falls to the sand castle, stifle all: who first Who then.
Fed ready to new quantitative easing in the event of deflation The FOMC, the operating arm of the Federal Reserve, announced, confirming the cost of borrowing in the range of 0-0.25% for the 20th consecutive month, to be ready for a new phase of quantitative easing if prices were to get directions deflationary. Thomas Hoenig, the no.1 spot in the Kansas City Fed, voted against for the sixth consecutive month.
Call for China to reduce dollar assets The head of China's sovereign wealth fund has Said Should Beijing veteran dollar assets in foreign exchange Reserves ITS ITS if Washington maintains loose monetary policy, a report said on Thursday. Lou Jiwei, chairman of the $US300 billion ($A320.26 billion) China Investment Corporation, wrote the comments in a book compiled for a conference involving Chinese and US economists that took place in Beijing this week, Dow Jones Newswires reported. "The timing of the Federal Reserve's exit from the current extremely easy monetary policy is a key factor in determining whether China and other emerging market countries can control their asset bubble," he was quoted as saying. "For China, the chief means to reduce economic risks are to strengthen regulating the capital inflow, control the liquidity through hedging, monitor relevant assets markets and divert forex reserve to non-dollar assets." Lou called on the United States to tighten its monetary policy, which he said would be "beneficial to the healthy development of the global economy", the report said. It was not clear when Lou wrote the piece. An organiser of the conference told Dow Jones that he had submitted it three weeks ago, but the article refers to a December announcement by Washington as recent. China - which has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, worth $US2.45 trillion ($A2.62 trillion) at the end of June - has invested a large portion of these in US dollar assets, such as safe low-yielding US Treasury bonds. But amid the financial crisis, it has tried to diversify its investments to improve returns, recently acquiring more South Korean and Japanese government debt. In Washington, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday said it was "past time" for China to lift barriers to US exports, as he faced demands from angry legislators for sanctions against Beijing. Geithner abandoned his previously restrained approach to bluntly warn China it must let the yuan rise in value against the dollar to end trade distortions. Facing November elections shaped by voter anger at the sour economy, US lawmakers are weighing bills that would slap sanctions on Chinese goods, amid accusations that Beijing keeps its currency - and thereby its exports - artificially cheap. "It is past time for China to move" Geithner said, adding that ending Chinese currency and other trade distortions were "core objectives". But Geithner faced fire from friend and foe alike for not labelling China a currency manipulator in his recent semi-annual reports to Congress - a move which could set in motion a process for retaliation. "At a time when the US economy is trying to pick itself up of the ground, China's currency manipulation is like a boot to the throat of our recovery. This administration refuses to take that boot off our neck," said Democratic Senator Charles Schumer. His comments were echoed by fellow Democrat Christopher Dodd who said: "It's clearly time for a change in strategy." Dodd also urged the US to take its case to the International Monetary Fund, who can probe currency manipulation. The Treasury Department's next currency report is due on October 15. The issue appeared to have been defused in June when China pledged in June to let the yuan trade more freely against the dollar, but Geithner has reiterated that he is still not satisfied with Beijing's moves to loosen its grip on the currency. According to Fred Bergsten of the Washington-based Peterson Institute, China's movement could help create "about half a million US jobs, mainly in manufacturing". Yet despite that "important" pledge, Geithner said the Chinese currency's value was "essentially" unchanged in the past two years. "China has continued to intervene in the exchange markets on a very substantial scale to limit the upward pressure of market forces on the Chinese currency." Since June the yuan has appreciated about 1.6 per cent against the greenback and traded at 6.7181, its highest level since June, on Wednesday. But China on Thursday warned outside pressure to change its currency regime would be counterproductive. "The appreciation of the renminbi (yuan) cannot solve the US trade deficit against China and it cannot solve the US domestic unemployment issue," foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told reporters. "The issues in China and US economic relations and trade should be properly solved through consultations on an equal footing. Exerting pressure cannot solve the issue. Rather, it may lead to the contrary." Despite his harsh warnings Geithner also tried to put the currency dispute in the context of a wider and mutually beneficial trade relationship with the fast-emerging economic super-power. Boosting trade with China is seen as vital to President Barack Obama's goal of doubling exports in five years. "We have very significant economic interests in our relationship with China," Geithner said. US exports to China have tallied more than $US53 billion ($A56.58 billion) since the beginning of this year. But trade tensions with China were ratcheted up another notch on Wednesday when Washington called on the World Trade Organisation to probe unfair Chinese trade practices. The United States is accusing China of unfair treatment of US steel and electronic payment providers, the first step toward sanctions.
IS.InteractiveChart S&P500 con il close di oggi conferma la fase di incertezza, compresso tra la media mobile to 200 periods and a maximum of 3 months. Bad day for the crude and also that retraces the cross € / $ seems to "expect anything" ... what will be the determining factor that will make a direction to the markets? The time now is FLAT and I'm thinking of starting to take short positions with up FTSEMIB leveraged etf
IS.InteractiveChart crucial for the S & P500 to new highs and remain above the SMA200; & # 232; to note the least now that has gone exactly to rely on just showing SMA200 downwards, and the index closed virtually unchanged, with very little volume. There is much uncertainty in the markets, the imperative is "surfing on sight"
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